Jaishankar to represent India in place of Modi at SCO summit in Kazakhstan

·      The article discusses the decision of India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to skip the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar representing India instead.

·       This decision comes amidst the participation of key leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and has significant implications for India's foreign relations and engagement with Central Asia.

Event Details

Summit Attendance and Representation

• S. Jaishankar's Role: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is leading the Indian delegation at the SCO Council of Heads of State in Astana, Kazakhstan. He reached Astana and has already engaged in discussions with Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu.
• Key Attendees: Leaders of the newly expanded SCO, including Presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Belarus, are attending. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are also present, while Iran’s President is likely to miss the summit due to elections.

Modi's Absence

• Avoiding Awkward Interactions: Prime Minister Modi's absence is seen as a strategic move to avoid awkward interactions with leaders of China and Pakistan, given the current tense relations with both countries.
• Impact on Central Asian Relations: Modi's decision may disappoint Central Asian countries, as interactions have been cancelled twice before—once during the Republic Day in 2022 due to COVID-19, and the SCO Summit in 2023, which was held virtually.

Discussions and Agenda

Multilateral Cooperation

• Plenary Session: Jaishankar is expected to address the plenary session, discussing the SCO’s activities over the past two decades and prospects for multilateral cooperation in trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism.
• Astana Declaration: The summit will adopt the Astana Declaration, focusing on strengthening economic ties, connectivity, fighting terrorism, and regional developments.

Strategic Interests

·       Chabahar Port and INSTC: India has promoted maximizing the utilization of the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India to Central Asia and Russia via Iran.

·       India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC): The IMEC has been stalled due to the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Geopolitical Implications

India-Pakistan Dynamics

• Trade and Terrorism: India and Pakistan, both SCO members since 2017, have often clashed over issues like terrorism and transit trade during high-level meetings.
• Ports and Trade Routes: Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif is expected to offer Qasim and Gwadar ports for Central Asia’s trade routes.

Afghanistan

• Taliban Regime: Developments in Afghanistan are likely to be a key topic, as most SCO members are closely engaged with the Taliban regime.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Modi’s decision to skip the SCO summit in Kazakhstan has significant implications for India's foreign policy and relations with Central Asia. While avoiding potentially awkward interactions with leaders of China and Pakistan, this move may lead to disappointment among Central Asian countries seeking engagement with India. The discussions at the SCO summit, particularly the adoption of the Astana Declaration, will focus on enhancing multilateral cooperation in trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism, alongside strategic interests such as the utilization of key ports and trade corridors. The geopolitical dynamics, including India-Pakistan relations and developments in Afghanistan, will also be central to the summit’s agenda.

Question: Discuss the implications of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to skip the SCO summit in Kazakhstan, considering the broader context of India's strategic interests and foreign policy. How might this decision affect India's relations with Central Asian countries and its geopolitical stance in the region?

Answer:

Introduction:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to skip the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar representing India, is a significant move in the context of India's foreign policy. This decision comes amidst participation from key leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The implications of this decision are multifaceted, impacting India's strategic interests and its relations with Central Asian countries.

Body:

1. Strategic Avoidance:

• Avoiding Tensions: Modi’s absence can be seen as a strategic move to avoid awkward interactions with leaders from China and Pakistan, given the ongoing border tensions with China and strained relations with Pakistan.
• Diplomatic Message: This decision sends a subtle diplomatic message, emphasizing India's discontent with the actions of these neighboring countries, especially in the context of border conflicts and issues related to terrorism.

2. Impact on Central Asian Relations:

• Disappointment Among Central Asian Leaders: Modi’s absence may disappoint Central Asian countries, as his interactions with them have been cancelled twice before, once during Republic Day in 2022 due to COVID-19, and again in 2023 when the SCO summit was held virtually.
• Missed Opportunities for Engagement: Personal engagement with Central Asian leaders is crucial for strengthening bilateral relations and fostering cooperation in various sectors such as trade, energy, and security.

3. India's Strategic Interests:

• Promotion of Strategic Projects: India has been promoting key projects like the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to enhance connectivity with Central Asia and Russia. Modi's absence might affect the momentum of these projects.
• Economic Corridors: The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which has faced delays due to the Israel-Gaza conflict, also requires strong diplomatic push and cooperation from regional partners.

4. Geopolitical Implications:

• Strengthening Multilateral Ties: The SCO summit is expected to discuss multilateral cooperation in trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism. India's participation is crucial for influencing these discussions and ensuring its strategic interests are considered.
• Balancing Regional Influence: With Russia and China playing dominant roles in the SCO, India’s active participation is essential to balance their influence and ensure a multipolar regional order.

5. Future Prospects:

• Upcoming SCO Meetings: Given the next SCO Heads of Government meet is due to be held in Pakistan later this year and the next SCO Summit will be hosted by China in 2025, it remains to be seen whether Modi will attend these future events, which could further shape India's strategic positioning in the region.

Conclusion:

Prime Minister Modi’s decision to skip the SCO summit in Kazakhstan has significant implications for India’s foreign policy and strategic interests. While it serves as a strategic avoidance of potential diplomatic tensions with China and Pakistan, it may also lead to missed opportunities for direct engagement with Central Asian leaders. Strengthening multilateral ties and balancing regional influence remain crucial for India’s geopolitical stance. The success of India's strategic projects and its role in the SCO will depend on its ability to navigate these complex diplomatic landscapes effectively.

Question 1: Why did Prime Minister Narendra Modi decide to skip the SCO summit in Kazakhstan?

A. Due to health reasons

B. To avoid awkward interactions with Chinese and Pakistani leaders

C. Because India is no longer a member of the SCO

D. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Answer: B. To avoid awkward interactions with Chinese and Pakistani leaders

Question 2: Who represented India at the SCO summit in Kazakhstan in place of Prime Minister Narendra Modi?

A. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval

B. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman

C. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar

D. Home Minister Amit Shah

Answer: C. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar

Question 3: What significant declaration is expected to be adopted at the SCO summit in Kazakhstan?

A. Delhi Declaration

B. Astana Declaration

C. Beijing Declaration

D. Moscow Declaration

Answer: B. Astana Declaration

Question 4: Which port has India promoted for maximizing utilization to enhance connectivity with Central Asia?

A. Gwadar Port

B. Chabahar Port

C. Karachi Port

D. Port of Bandar Abbas

Answer: B. Chabahar Port

Question 5: Which of the following is a key topic expected to be discussed at the SCO summit?

A. Space exploration

B. Global warming

C. Multilateral cooperation in trade and fighting terrorism

D. Cybersecurity

Answer: C. Multilateral cooperation in trade and fighting terrorism