Government mulls over sending Jaishankar for SCO meet in Pakistan

·        The article discusses India's potential participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Heads of Government meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, scheduled for October 15-16, 2023.

·        The Indian government is considering sending External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to attend the meeting, which would mark the first high-level visit to Pakistan from India in nearly a decade.

·        The decision is seen as an important move in the context of India’s plurilateral commitments and maintaining its diplomatic presence in the SCO, a significant Eurasian grouping, while also managing delicate bilateral relations with Pakistan.

Key Points of the Analysis:

1.     Significance of the SCO for India:

o    The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a multilateral platform comprising 10 Eurasian countries, including key global players like Russia and China, as well as India and Pakistan. India’s participation in the SCO provides it with a platform for regional cooperation on issues like security, counterterrorism, economic collaboration, and connectivity.

o    The former High Commissioners emphasized that India's participation in the SCO should be seen independently of its bilateral relationship with Pakistan. This is a significant point because the SCO provides India with opportunities for engaging with major global and regional powers, especially at a time of geopolitical shifts in Eurasia. For India, the SCO holds strategic value beyond its relations with Pakistan.

2.     India-Pakistan Relations and the SCO:

o    The potential visit of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to Pakistan, if it happens, would be the first in nearly a decade. However, both countries have a long history of strained relations, particularly following India's moves in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, after which bilateral ties further deteriorated.

o    Despite these strained relations, India is expected to prioritize its SCO obligations and attend the meeting, much like Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto attended the SCO Foreign Ministers meeting in Goa in 2023. Former diplomats, like Ajay Bisaria, emphasize the importance of participating in the SCO while not allowing bilateral tensions with Pakistan to overshadow multilateral obligations.

3.     No Bilateral Talks Expected:

o    It is unlikely that any bilateral talks between India and Pakistan will take place during this visit. During the SCO Foreign Ministers meeting in Goa earlier in 2023, both Bhutto and Jaishankar exchanged greetings but did not hold any bilateral discussions. In fact, the meeting ended with both ministers making critical public statements about each other.

o    Former High Commissioners, including T.C.A. Raghavan and Gautam Bambawale, stress that India should not allow its bilateral differences with Pakistan to affect its participation in the SCO. While there is potential for a "bilateral opening," it is clear that Jaishankar’s participation would be focused solely on the SCO agenda.

4.     Managing India-Pakistan Relations:

o    India’s relations with Pakistan have been tense, particularly since the 2019 events related to Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. However, participating in the SCO demonstrates India's willingness to engage on multilateral platforms despite these tensions.

o    The SCO offers an opportunity for diplomatic engagement without focusing on bilateral issues. This contrasts with platforms like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), where bilateral issues between India and Pakistan have often stalled progress. The failure of SAARC is a reminder of how bilateral disputes can hinder multilateral cooperation, something India is keen to avoid in the SCO.

5.     Strategic Calculations:

o    Sending Jaishankar to Pakistan could be seen as a reciprocal gesture, considering Pakistan’s Foreign Minister attended the meeting in Goa. However, India will likely ensure that the visit is framed strictly within the context of SCO commitments, without giving any signals of normalizing bilateral relations with Pakistan.

o    Geopolitical factors also play a role. With growing tensions between India and China, as well as India’s strategic partnerships with countries like Russia, participating in the SCO allows India to maintain its presence in key regional dialogues, especially those focused on Eurasian connectivity and security.

Conclusion:

The government’s consideration of sending S. Jaishankar to the SCO Heads of Government meeting in Pakistan is a strategic move aimed at upholding India’s commitment to multilateralism while carefully navigating its strained bilateral relationship with Pakistan. By attending the SCO meeting, India reaffirms its position within a crucial regional organization that deals with important geopolitical and economic matters, including counterterrorism and regional security.

While it is unlikely that any bilateral discussions will take place, the visit would signify India's commitment to maintaining engagement with key global actors like Russia and China through platforms like the SCO, even in the face of challenging diplomatic relations with Pakistan. The visit reflects India’s broader strategy of separating bilateral issues from multilateral cooperation and ensuring its role in shaping regional dynamics in Eurasia.

Mains Question:

Discuss the strategic significance of India’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meetings in light of its strained bilateral relations with Pakistan. How can India balance its plurilateral commitments with bilateral challenges?

Answer:

Introduction:

India’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meetings has strategic importance, particularly in light of its ongoing diplomatic challenges with Pakistan. The SCO, a regional grouping that includes major players such as Russia, China, India, and Pakistan, provides India a platform for engagement on regional security, economic cooperation, and counterterrorism. While India’s relations with Pakistan have been strained, particularly after the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, participation in SCO offers an opportunity for India to pursue its plurilateral goals without allowing bilateral tensions to dominate.

Strategic Importance of the SCO for India:

1.     Regional Security and Counterterrorism:

o    The SCO is primarily focused on regional security, particularly in Central Asia and Eurasia. For India, cooperation through the SCO is important for addressing security concerns such as terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking. Given the instability in Afghanistan and the rise of terrorism in the region, India’s active participation in the SCO ensures that its interests in regional security are protected.

o    India’s engagement in SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) is critical for intelligence sharing and cooperation on counterterrorism, especially with Russia and Central Asian countries, who are important partners in regional security.

2.     Economic Cooperation and Connectivity:

o    The SCO provides India with access to discussions on economic cooperation and connectivity projects in Eurasia. Through initiatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), India can leverage its participation in the SCO to promote trade routes that connect it to Central Asia and Europe. This is particularly important as India seeks to diversify its energy supplies and build connectivity with resource-rich regions in Central Asia.

o    Despite the presence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, India’s involvement in the SCO enables it to engage in regional economic dialogue without endorsing BRI projects that pass through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

3.     Geopolitical Positioning in Eurasia:

o    By participating in the SCO, India strengthens its geopolitical positioning in Eurasia, particularly with Russia and China. India’s strategic autonomy allows it to engage in multilateral platforms where both the United States and China have significant influence, balancing its interests in regional and global geopolitics.

o    As the SCO provides an important forum for dialogue between China, Russia, and Central Asian nations, India’s participation ensures that it remains an important player in shaping regional policies. This is especially crucial as tensions between India and China remain high, particularly in the context of border disputes in Ladakh.

4.     Engagement with Russia:

o    India’s participation in the SCO is a key component of its relationship with Russia. As a traditional ally and a major defense partner, Russia plays an important role in India’s geopolitical strategy. Through the SCO, India can maintain its engagement with Russia, especially as Russia faces growing isolation from the West due to its invasion of Ukraine.

o    The SCO provides a multilateral forum where India can strengthen its ties with Russia while simultaneously balancing its relations with the West, including the United States.

Challenges in Managing India-Pakistan Relations:

1.     Tense Bilateral Ties:

o    India’s relationship with Pakistan remains tense, particularly after India’s revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, which led to the downgrading of diplomatic ties. Bilateral talks have stalled, and exchanges at multilateral forums like the SCO are often contentious, as seen during the SCO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Goa in 2023, where both sides exchanged criticisms.

o    Despite this, India’s participation in the SCO is vital for separating bilateral tensions with Pakistan from its broader strategic objectives. The SCO allows India to pursue regional cooperation without letting its strained relations with Pakistan dominate the agenda.

2.     Avoiding Bilateral Engagement at SCO:

o    Former diplomats have emphasized that while India should participate in the SCO, it is under no obligation to engage in bilateral talks with Pakistan during these meetings. For example, India can attend SCO meetings and discuss regional security, counterterrorism, and economic cooperation without holding bilateral talks with Pakistani leaders.

o    This approach allows India to fulfill its plurilateral commitments while maintaining a firm stance on its bilateral issues with Pakistan, such as cross-border terrorism and Kashmir.

Balancing Plurilateral Commitments with Bilateral Challenges:

1.     Fulfilling Multilateral Obligations:

o    India’s participation in the SCO is part of its broader commitment to multilateralism. By attending SCO meetings, even in Pakistan, India sends a signal that it values multilateral diplomacy and is willing to engage in dialogue with regional partners, despite bilateral tensions with some members.

o    India’s participation also ensures that it is not isolated within the SCO, where China and Pakistan are influential members. By engaging in SCO forums, India can counterbalance China’s influence and assert its interests in regional decision-making.

2.     Maintaining Strategic Autonomy:

o    India’s approach to participating in the SCO while avoiding bilateral talks with Pakistan reflects its strategic autonomy. India can engage with multiple regional powers on issues like security and trade while maintaining its independence from any single country or bloc.

o    India’s non-alignment in the context of growing global divisions, particularly between the West and Russia/China, allows it to navigate complex regional dynamics without compromising its core national interests.

3.     Reciprocal Diplomatic Engagement:

o    India’s decision to potentially send External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to the SCO meeting in Islamabad could be seen as a reciprocal gesture following Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto’s visit to Goa in 2023. This move underscores India’s commitment to diplomatic reciprocity and maintaining civility in international relations, even with adversarial neighbors.

o    However, by clearly separating the SCO agenda from any bilateral engagement with Pakistan, India ensures that it remains focused on the multilateral forum while leaving the ball in Pakistan’s court regarding future bilateral talks.

Conclusion:

India’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meetings is a strategic necessity, providing it with an important platform for regional cooperation, economic engagement, and security dialogue. Despite its strained relationship with Pakistan, India must continue to engage in the SCO to maintain its presence in key regional discussions, particularly on issues of security and connectivity in Eurasia. By carefully balancing its plurilateral commitments with its bilateral challenges, India can pursue its national interests while avoiding unnecessary bilateral entanglements with Pakistan. This approach ensures that India’s role in the SCO remains constructive and forward-looking, contributing to regional stability and enhancing its geopolitical influence.

MCQs

1. What is the primary strategic importance of India's participation in the SCO?
a) To improve bilateral relations with Pakistan
b) To engage in regional security, economic cooperation, and counterterrorism initiatives
c) To align with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
d) To strengthen military alliances in Eurasia

Answer: b) To engage in regional security, economic cooperation, and counterterrorism initiatives

2. How does India’s participation in the SCO help balance its relations with global powers like Russia and China?
a) It allows India to reduce its engagement with the West
b) It offers India a platform to strengthen ties with both Russia and China while maintaining strategic autonomy
c) It forces India to align with China on regional issues
d) It helps India distance itself from geopolitical tensions in South Asia

Answer: b) It offers India a platform to strengthen ties with both Russia and China while maintaining strategic autonomy

3. Why is India likely to avoid bilateral talks with Pakistan during SCO meetings?
a) India considers the SCO irrelevant to its regional strategy
b) Bilateral tensions between India and Pakistan overshadow multilateral discussions
c) India prefers to keep the focus on regional and plurilateral commitments
d) Pakistan does not participate in SCO meetings

Answer: c) India prefers to keep the focus on regional and plurilateral commitments

4. What role does the SCO play in regional counterterrorism efforts?
a) It facilitates military cooperation between India and Pakistan
b) It allows countries to collaborate through the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS)
c) It promotes intelligence-sharing only between Russia and China
d) It helps member countries build a joint military force

Answer: b) It allows countries to collaborate through the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS)

5. How does India's engagement in the SCO impact its geopolitical positioning in Eurasia?
a) It strengthens India's position as a leader in South Asia
b) It isolates India from its Western allies
c) It enhances India’s influence in Eurasian regional security and connectivity dialogues
d) It limits India's engagement with other global institutions

Answer: c) It enhances India’s influence in Eurasian regional security and connectivity dialogues